Corona world upside down: While the fourth wave has Germany firmly in its grip and the next lockdown is imminent, Sweden is apparently spared all of this. In no other European country is the incidence so low, even though there have been no corona measures since October. But how can Sweden's incidence still be so low?
Sweden's low incidence: Winter wave hasn't reached the country yet
Since the beginning of the pandemic, Sweden has been viewed critically for its relaxed approach to the coronavirus. There have even been no restrictions at all since October, and yet the incidence (currently around 60) remains remarkably low despite the cold season. According to focus.de, “only about 30 Covid-19 sufferers currently need intensive care – unimaginable in Germany at the moment. Obviously, Sweden seems to have been spared the hard corona winter wave. But appearances are deceptive. Even if Sweden’s chief epidemiologist is different Tegnell describes the situation as “surprisingly stable”, behind the scenes many experts have long been expecting a change in the current corona situation.
Tegnell also shares this fear, as reported by ntv.de. After all, the past has shown time and again that new corona waves have always reached Sweden with a significant delay - and this is the case now. One is now five to six weeks behind, so Tegnell. But it is not only the time lag that keeps the Swedish incidence at a low level. According to Sweden's chief epidemiologist, there are other factors that are playing into the hands of the Swedes in the fight against the spread of the virus.
Lower population density
A plausible reason why the incidence in Sweden is so low compared to other European countries, according to Tegnell, is the low population density. According to Eurosat, Sweden is the second most sparsely populated country in Europe with just under 25 inhabitants per square kilometer. Only Sweden's neighbor Finland has an even lower population density (18.2 people per square kilometer). For comparison: Germany has a population density of around 235. In the Netherlands there are even 500 inhabitants per square kilometer. Since we know that the virus spreads particularly quickly when many people are together, it makes sense that Sweden's incidence is therefore so low.
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But if you take a look at Sweden's metropolitan areas, the argument seems to crumble. For example, the province of Stockholm has a relatively high population density (332) with 2.37 million inhabitants - with decisive consequences for the incidence there. Because where many people live, the virus has an easier game. This is also the case in Stockholm. This is currently almost 238 new infections. This means: Nationwide, the incidence may be particularly low due to the lower population density, but Sweden's metropolitan areas continue to record many new infections - and the trend is rising!
Higher basic immunity does not seem to be the decisive factor
According to SWR, however, Tegnell does not believe that Sweden can better absorb the fourth corona wave because of the population's higher basic immunity. He traces this assumption back to empirical values from Great Britain. "I don't know - in the UK, for example, a similarly large proportion of the population has contracted the corona virus. That could possibly play a role compared to Finland or Norway, but not if we compare Sweden to the UK." Tegnell doesn't seem to be wrong about that, because in fact more people have been infected with the virus in Great Britain than in Sweden. The incidence is also significantly higher. It is currently close to 400.
People's behavior may explain Sweden's low incidence
But why are new infections still at such a low level? Many experts see the reason for this in the behavior of Swedish citizens. Because if you take a closer look, many people are still particularly cautious despite the many freedoms. But the government's less strict corona policy could also have a greater impact than many might think.
So says Sweden's chief epidemiologist Tegnell: "I think that was the central point. We said from the beginning: This will be a marathon and not a sprint. That's why we need measures that work over very long periods of time. We never believed that this constant opening and closing of society would work. We knew that this would have too many negative effects." Therefore, the measures were accepted and heeded by the citizens in the long run.
But that's not all. Tegnell goes on to explain that many Swedish citizens see vaccination as a solidary contribution to the community and are therefore more likely to opt for the Corona-Piks than many Germans. In addition, there are also fewer opponents of vaccination and almost no lateral thinkers who question the effectiveness of the measures and the vaccination. Of course it's now paying off. Because successful disease control is hardly possible without the community. Nevertheless, in view of the worrying development in other European countries, one should continue to be cautious and increase the vaccination rate as much as possible through boosters.
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In the fight against the corona virus, our neighboring country Austria has not only decided on a nationwide lockdown, but has also imposed general vaccination requirements. A few people will need to dress warmly from February 2022. Those who refuse to vaccinate face severe penalties.
Would you like to know more about this topic? Then read on here: Coronavirus. Should Germany get boosts in the fight against the corona virus? Booster vaccination against Corona: What you need to know about the 3rd injection.
Sources: swr.de, focus.de and ntv.de
