The nationwide seven-day incidence continues to fall. As of today, no federal state is above the incidence value of 1,000. Reason for optimism? Or are the numbers actually higher?
A week ago, the nationwide corona incidence value was almost 430 - on Tuesday the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported almost relaxed values. The number of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week was 375.
If the positive trend continues, a relatively carefree Christmas with the family could even be possible - if everyone has been tested, recovered, vaccinated and, if possible, already boosted. At least that applies to North Rhine-Westphalia, where the nationwide incidence fell to around 268 on Tuesday. It looks even better in some regions of NRW: for example in Münster with around 139.
But the last doubts remain: how close are the official corona numbers to reality? And how reliable is the reported hospitalization incidence, which is used to decide whether to relax or tighten the corona rules?
How reliable is the seven-day incidence?
Even if the indications of a positive trend are increasing day by day: Experts assume that for weeks a large number of corona infections have only been associated with be reported to the RKI with a significant delay. How big the gap actually is cannot be precisely quantified at the moment.
The figures from the RKI are often not complete, says immunologist Reinhold Förster from the Hannover Medical School. ", said Förster on Sunday of the "Current Hour" on WDR television.
The reason: many health authorities are still overwhelmed and only report new infections with a delay. The same applies to the hospitals, which are currently so busy taking care of the patients that the documentation suffers. In addition, laboratories responsible for evaluating corona tests are overloaded in many places.
The example of Cologne shows how unreliable regional case numbers can be. As of December 8, the official incidence was a moderate 391.1. A few days later, the value had to be corrected to 569.4.
When will the health authorities provide completely reliable figures again?
It's still unclear, but the transmission is apparently improving. The health authorities in Germany are slowly catching up, at least according to the head of the association of medical officers. "," said the chairwoman of the board of directors of the Federal Association of Physicians in the Public Health Service, Ute Teichert, on Tuesday.
In many offices, the staff is now only used to process incoming infection reports, so there is less contact tracing. The support of Bundeswehr soldiers also helped.
And what about the hospitalization incidence?
Since November, it has been considered the most important value for political decision-makers in the pandemic: the hospitalization incidence. It states how many Covid patients per 100,000 inhabitants were hospitalized within the last seven days. The problem: the overburdened hospitals often report the new arrivals with a long delay. The daily hospitalization incidence has to be regularly corrected upwards afterwards.
The RKI is aware of the problem and therefore publishes an estimate in addition to the official hospitalization incidence, which already includes the expected number of late registrations. The differences between the numbers can be quite significant: for example, on December 6, the currently reported value was 5.32. By Sunday, this value had already been corrected to 7.97. According to the RKI estimate, the true number could be much higher: 11.96.
What are the future prospects?
Christian Karagiannidis
Even if the positive trend in new infections continues in the coming days and weeks: The effects of the fourth wave will continue to put pressure on the healthcare system for a very long time. The intensive care units are already at the limit, warns Christian Karagiannidis from the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI). The new statistics show that the number of new Covid patients in the intensive care units has stabilized somewhat.
It is still unclear what effects the feared further spread of the omicron variant could have.
